Saturday, March 13, 2010

Change And The Small World Problem

In the 1960's, Stanley Milgram asked the question: if you take two people at random and find the shortest path of connections linking them together, what is the average number of links? How connected are we to total strangers? It became known as the small world problem.
The mean number of intermediaries observed in this study was somewhat greater than five
So, five or six. Hence, the six degrees of separation. Since Milgram asked that question, the small world problem has become rather popular. No doubt you have played the Kevin Bacon game at some point in your life. It sparked an entirely new field of study, called network theory or social network analysis.

Network theory looks at the structure of specific networks and the patterns of paths connecting individuals in those networks. While Milgram analyzed how quickly individuals picked at random could be connected, network theorists take a step back and look at the make up of communities. What they are finding can radically change the world. And all because of one significant discovery: hubs.

Hubs are essentially connected individuals. Connected to many people, or just enough of the right people. When you look at the paths connecting individuals in a community, you find many paths crossed and high-traffic sections. As it turns out, many of us tend to be connected by a fairly small segment of the population.

One of the early discovered results was that these hubs have a greater ability to enact change in their network than individuals with few connections. Malcolm Gladwell calls it an 80/20 principal of economics. He described it as "the idea that in any situation roughly 80 percent of the 'work' will be done by 20 percent of the participants." (The Tipping Point, p.19) This theory, that a very small segment of the community will be the ones responsible for the change, or lack of change, taking place in that community, has been confirmed repeatedly even in rather new networks.

This type of analysis has the ability to create great change, for better or worse. Companies already use this philosophy when reaching out to sponsor athletes. They choose how much that sponsorship is worth based on the number and quality of connections to potential customers that individual has. Yet there is potential beyond selling us stuff.

Network theory details how individuals are connected, and in doing so, explains the spread of information and disease. The famous Obama-is-a-Muslim emails are a perfect example of the former.

Chris Hayes detailed the origin of that rumor in an article about right-wing email forwards, and what we learn is that a fairly small number of people with the right set of connections set off a chain of events that changed an enormous community.
On August 10, 2004, just two weeks after Obama had given his much-heralded keynote speech at the DNC in Boston, a perennial Republican Senate candidate and self-described "independent contrarian columnist" named Andy Martin issued a press release. In it, he announced a press conference in which he would expose Obama for having "lied to the American people" and "misrepresent[ed] his own heritage."

Martin raised all kinds of strange allegations about Obama but focused on him attempting to hide his Muslim past. "It may well be that his concealment is meant to endanger Israel," read Martin's statement. "His Muslim religion would obviously raise serious questions in many Jewish circles where Obama now enjoys support."
That was the first hub. That individual was not significant for having numerous connections, although he did relative to most individuals, but he happened to have the right set of connections...
Within a few days of Martin's press conference, the conservative site Free Republic had picked it up, attracting a long comment thread, but after that small blip the specious "questions" about Obama's background disappeared. Then, in the fall of 2006, as word got out that Obama was considering a presidential run, murmurs on the Internet resumed. In October a conservative blog called Infidel Bloggers Alliance reposted the Andy Martin press release under the title "Is Barack Obama Lying About His Life Story?" A few days later the online RumorMillNews also reposted the Andy Martin press release in response to a reader's inquiry about whether Obama was a Muslim. Then in December fringe right-wing activist Ted Sampley posted a column on the web raising the possibility that Obama was a secret Muslim... On December 29, 2006, the very same day that Sampley posted his column, Snopes received its first copy of the e-mail forward, which contains an identical charge in strikingly similar language. Given the timing, it seems likely that it was a distillation of Sampley's work.
A handful of hubs, several of which likely had the slimmest of connection to each other, and the misinformation spread remarkably far. The same rule applies to disease. Disease does not have the internet to help it spread (although a computer virus is also a good example), but the pattern is all the same. We already consider the hubs when a bad flu is around. Schools, airports, malls, places with high numbers of people or close contact (quality of connections is often as important as number). Understanding the effect hubs have on the spread of disease helps us to fight it. Network theory opens up possibilities for coming up with new, creative, and effect methods of containing outbreaks.

Just as we can use network theory to better understand the spread of disease and develop methods of containing it, we can also use this knowledge to combat the spread of misinformation. Intellectual quarantine of potentially harmful and factually inaccurate smears.

The same principals apply to organizing for social justice. The community members you ask to host house meetings and actions or become leaders are ideally hubs, or connected to hubs (As far as my research has taken me, network theory has yet to touch on the creation of hubs and one thing a good organizer can do is help members of the community build new leaders, new hubs). The press you attract is intended to extend connections. The activist and supporter networks you build are hopefully established in a way where information can be disseminated quickly and efficiently. None of these things happen on accident. They happen because of the conscious planning of a small number of people.

As Margaret Mead said, “Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has.” Mathematically speaking, that is.

Thursday, March 11, 2010

Yes, Sen Byrd Stopped Reconciliation For Clinton's Health Care Reform

So, there is a video that is getting a lot of attention amongst the right wing nuts:



And yes, the video is not made up, Senator Byrd did counsel President Clinton against using reconciliation to pass health care reform, claiming the reforms were far too massive for that process.

But there is a huge difference that our conservative friends are overlooking, Senator Byrd stopped President Clinton from using reconciliation to pass the entire health care package. That is, in no conceivable way, the same thing we are talking about today.

Today we are talking about having a massive health care reform bill passed in both the House and Senate (assuming the House passes it, and I absolutely agree with David Waldman that they should pass the fixes first but that is a subject for a different post). Reconciliation will only be used for small fixes. This is a completely different situation.

There is no shred of merit to claims that Sen Byrd's statement means anything in regards to the situation we find ourselves in today.

UPDATE: Oh, and thanks go out to zenbassoon for reminding me that Sen Byrd has openly stated that the proposed use of reconciliation is acceptable.

Green Thoughts: Moisture Control



Another issue that may homeowners may have after properly sealing their building shell, besides for a lack of air ventilation, is an excess of moisture. Vapor generates naturally within the home, whether from exterior sources, like ground water, or from internal sources, such as showers and water boiled for cooking. No matter the source, an excess of moisture is not a good thing for your home. It potentially can both deteriorate your air quality, through mold growth and other methods, and decay the materials that make up you home, such as the paint, walls, and interior floor joists and wall studs which don't react well to prolonged exposure to warm and moist air.

To solve these problems, Jason from Edge Energy (www.edge-gogreen.com) is going to show us solutions for two major areas of moisture generation. First, he is going to take us under a client's house to demonstrate how to properly seal a crawl space. As Jason will point out, there are several different problem areas in crawl spaces underneath the home, but the multiple simultaneous solutions he introduces will comprehensively protect your home from the massive amount of ground water that can seep into your home. The second moisture production point Jason will address is an interior source, the shower. Here he will show you how a few cheap and simple solutions can dramatically improve the moisture load in your home (hint: use your bathroom fan when showering)

To see more Green Thoughts on Thursday posts, please go to www.SumofChange.com/greenthoughts

Full Disclosure: EDGE Energy hired us, as Sum of Change not individuals, to produce several videos for them including the ones in this post. We have not been hired to distribute, recommend, or advertise for EDGE Energy, rather we are using these videos to explain a vital service and we appreciate them letting us do so.

To learn more about the energy audit from Edge and see more of our videos, please go to www.edge-gogreen.com and see Edge's youtube page

The Single Dumbest Excuse Ever

This is not hyperbole. If you have been following the case of a school spying on students using cameras on laptops given out to students, you too heard the single dumbest excuse ever.

Here is their excuse:
The district claims that it only did so to try to track down lost or stolen laptops.
If you are not sure, yes that is the single dumbest excuse I have ever heard. Let me tell you why.

A laptop camera is nowhere close to the most effective method of finding a lost laptop. First off, it is highly likely that using the camera will do nothing to help you find it. Unless the lap top is in an easily recognizable place, that laptop camera could be useless. And here is the kicker, if you are able to access the camera, you are able to access information that is 8 trillion times more effective, the IP address. With an IP address, you can locate the computer. Anyone capable of accessing the computer's camera would know this, absolutely. They turned on the computer cameras to see what was going on there. There is no other reasonable explanation. It is a blatant and intentional violation of individual privacy, and if there is any justice the Judge will laugh them out of the courtroom if they try to make that excuse during the trial.

Rachel Maddown on Health Care and Abortion

Okay folks, we have been saying this exact same stuff for some time now, but Rachel Maddow gave some great analysis of the health care and abortion debate last night.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy


Let me repeat, the Senate health care bill does not change the standard we have lived by for decades that no tax-payer dollars go towards abortion. It does not. This is not an opinion, it is a fact. Rachel Maddow gave great analysis, but I would love to see her ask some of these folks to come explain themselves. We can go blue in our face telling people these folks are wrong and have no clue what they are talking about, but we need to show it. I would like to see more people taking these anti-choice dimwits on, asking them three times to explain what in the Senate bill funds abortion.

We did it:
<a href="http://www.linkedtube.com/MG08mAIsV6s79ad054160159dd24d78ae788c06f406.htm">LinkedTube</a>

<a href="http://www.linkedtube.com/pk39bCyELw092c37313c63c99cdde8ddb3e85a4225c.htm">LinkedTube</a>

So, we are dealing with a bill that is by no means pro-choice. It does near everything possible to avoid touching reproductive health all together. Pro-choice folks should not be thrilled, but anti-choice folks are either lying, too lazy to fact check, or too incompetent to fact check if they are outraged by the bill.

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

DC Health Care Rally - March 9th 2010

Yesterday, we posted some quick interviews I did with some of the folks at the health care rally in Washington DC. Today we have some highlights of the day's events:

<a href="http://www.linkedtube.com/lZz5ZIssdO4823ead18f677dba1c17c0e0b0e5f5f88.htm">LinkedTube</a>

Featuring Gov Howard Dean, Hilary Shelton of the NAACP, and Anna Burger of SEIU.

National Abortion Provider Appreciation Day

Today, March 10th, marks the National Abortion Provider Appreciation Day. The Nation did a great job covering the politics of this year's appreciation day, but no one captured the emotion of the day better than Alexis Zepeda:

For all abortion providers, clinic staff, volunteer escorts and local fund volunteers...

When she looks at the piece of paper with your phone number on it, she wonders who will watch her kids, will she have to travel to a different state, does her credit card have enough space on it, how much will she get when she pawns her TV, will he come through with the $300 he promised her…can she do this?

She walks through the gauntlet of protesters – the same people some of you walk past every day at work and at home – but remains resolute in her decision. This choice of hers is only a real possibility because of your dedication to the notion that as long as there are unplanned and unwanted pregnancies, there must be access to safe and legal abortion care.

Your work is revolutionary and empowering. Your goals are simple: value women, trust women, listen to women. By providing the compassionate and skilled abortion care that women and their families need, you save women’s lives. You are heroes. Thank you for all that you do. Hearing that every day would still never be enough. On March 10, 2010, know that you all play a critical role in our movement’s struggle to fight stigma, judgment and prejudice.

Thank you!!

Abortion is a matter of the heart: for until one understands the heart of a woman, nothing else about abortion makes any sense at all.
- Dr. George Tiller

Reproductive health care is under attack in America, but today we can celebrate that it is mostly safe and legal right now.