Will 2010 Look Like 2008?

As we studied the numbers after the 2009 election, one thing stood out glaringly: the Obama voters had stayed home. Nate Silver showed us that the electorate that came out that day in Virginia had voted for McCain by 51-43, a stark difference from 2008's actual VA results.

Who knows whether or not this election was a sign of things to come, or just a reinforcement of the trend that when a new President takes over, the party suffers in the next election.

But if Democrats want 2010 to look anything like 2008, they better take a cue from this recent bombshell of a poll:

A new national poll finds that fully one third of Democratic voters say that they’re “less likely” to vote in 2010 if Congress doesn’t pass a public option, underscoring the possibility that dropping the provision seriously risks dampening the Dem base’s enthusiasm.

Why am I so sure that Republicans and Blue Dogs will find a way to say that this poll shows that the President should run to the center on health care? All I can say is, polls have shown that for the last several years health care has been the most important issue amongst liberal voters, so I am not shocked in the slightest bit by the results of this poll.